Methodology, assumptions and sources
What the numbers on this site are, how they were built, and where each factor comes from.
The quarterly series
The quarterly series is a ramp model built on the scenarios of the 2021 business plan. It is not audited accounting, and it is not a record of realised production. Every environmental, social and economic figure labelled Modelled is derived from that series through the formulas published on each metric card.
Series input
| Quarter | Flake MT | Bottle purchase price | Mixed flake sales price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 675 | 250 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q2 2025 | 700 | 250 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q3 2025 | 745 | 265 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q4 2025 | 790 | 265 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q1 2026 | 840 | 280 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q2 2026 | 890 | 280 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q3 2026 | 950 | 300 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
| Q4 2026 | 1,009 | 300 USD/MT | 900 USD/MT |
On the 2021 prices
The prices in the business plan correspond to a market peak. Return scenarios built on them should be read as an upper bound of the price environment, not as a central case.
On the emission factors
The avoided-emissions factor of 1.7 kg CO2e per kg of rPET is a European reference from denkstatt, pending an own life cycle assessment. This matters concretely: the Venezuelan electricity mix and diesel self-generation will make the real factor differ, and the direction of that difference is not assumed here.
- Scope 1 of 0.25 kg CO2e per kg of flake is derived from roughly 75 litres of boiler diesel per MT plus around 18 litres per MT from the generator.
- Collector productivity of 20 to 80 kg of material per day, of which about 30 % is plastic, is taken from Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2024) and used only to produce a range.
- rPET 0.45 · PET 2.15 kg CO2e/kg
Process constants and costs
Formulas
bottleMT = flakeMT / 0.75bottlesDiverted = bottleMT × 1000 / 0.030tCO2e avoided = flakeMT × 1.7tCO2e scope 1 = flakeMT × 0.25tCO2e net = tCO2e avoided − tCO2e scope 1USD to chain = bottleMT × bottle purchase pricecollectors = (bottleMT × 1000 / 90) / 24 … / 6revenue = flakeMT × 900 + (bottleMT × 0.10 × 200)variable cost = flakeMT × 94contribution margin = revenue − variable cost − quarterly fixed costutilisation = flakeMT / (1.5 × 0.75 × shift hours × production days in quarter)direct jobs = 12 through 2025 Q4, 20 from 2026 Q1flakeMT — manual series input
External sources
- denkstatt, carbon footprint of rPET for ALPLA / PET Recycling Team (rPET 0.45 vs virgin PET 2.15 kg CO2e/kg)
- Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2024), informal waste picker productivity
- Ocean Bound Plastic Certification, Zero Plastic Oceans
- GRI 306: Waste 2020
- IRIS+ metric PD9364, Percent Recycled Materials
- Material Circularity Indicator, Ellen MacArthur Foundation
- GHG Protocol, Corporate Standard and avoided emissions guidance
- Fair Circularity Initiative and Systemiq living income methodology
- Directive (EU) 2019/904 on single-use plastics
- Regulation (EU) 2025/40 on packaging and packaging waste (PPWR)